WASHINGTON - Just-released
transcripts show the Federal
Reserve was worried about the
threat of deflation when it
decided to cut a key interest
rate by a half-point in November
2002. Then-Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan called
the prospect "pretty scary."
Those transcripts, released
Friday, showed that Greenspan
and his colleagues were focused
on what should be done about a
sluggish economy and the threat
that the country could tumble
into a period of deflation,
something the country had not
experienced since the Great
Depression.
While the Fed strives to achieve
low inflation, it does not want
to see the economy enter a
period of serious deflation with
the value of real estate and
other assets dropping because
that sets off destabilizing
forces that can have serious
consequences. The United States
was battered by deflation during
the 1930s and Japan experienced
a lost decade of growth in the
1990s after its real estate
bubble burst, causing a severe
bout of deflation in that
country.
Some critics have argued that
there was never a serious threat
of deflation in the United
States in the period of the 2001
recession and that the extremely
low interest rates engineered by
the Fed created a housing boom
that drove prices and sales up
to record levels only to burst
in 2006, sending shock waves
through the economy that are
still reverberating.
The transcripts released Friday
show that Fed officials at the
time were not that worried about
the effects low interest rates
might have, arguing that if
inflation started rising, the
Fed could reverse course and
start raising rates but that a
bout of deflation would be
harder to combat.
The Fed did cut the federal
funds rate, the interest that
banks charge on overnight loans,
by a half-point at the November
2002 meeting, moving it from
1.75 percent down to 1.25
percent, the lowest level in 41
years. That was the only rate
cut the Fed made that year.
During the discussions,
Greenspan expressed concern
about the country falling into a
"deflationary hole."
"It's a pretty scary prospect
and one that we certainly want
to avoid," Greenspan told other
members of the Federal Open
Market Committee, the Fed panel
that meets eight times a year to
set interest rates.
The Fed would cut the funds rate
one more time the next year,
pushing it to a 45-year low of 1
percent on June 25, 2003. The
central bank left the funds rate
at that level for an entire year
until it began a gradual move to
raise rates in June 2004.
While Greenspan was hailed when
he left the Fed in early 2006
after 18 1/2 years as chairman
for safely guiding the U.S.
economy through a number of
dangers, the bursting of the
housing boom that year and a
resulting severe credit crunch
have prompted a reassessment of
those actions.
But in an interview on CNBC this
week, Greenspan said he had "no
regrets" about Fed policy during
his tenure and said there was
little Fed officials or other
regulators could have done to
avert the housing crisis.
In the interview, Greenspan
blamed the housing crisis on
"egregious lending practices" in
the subprime mortgage market.
Critics charge that Greenspan
pushed rates too low and left
them there too long, fueling a
housing bubble that has now
burst, causing severe troubles
including the possibility that
the country has fallen into a
recession.
But at the time, Greenspan and
his colleagues clearly saw the
biggest dangers coming from weak
growth and possible deflationary
forces.
On the possibility that a
half-point cut might be too
much, Greenspan said at the
November meeting, "It's a
mistake that does not have very
significant consequences. On the
other hand, if we fail to move
and we are wrong, meaning that
we needed to, the costs could be
quite high."
William McDonough, president of
the New York Federal Reserve
Bank, argued that if the Fed cut
rates by only a quarter-point,
financial markets would consider
Fed officials "a bunch of wimps,
which is not an attractive
assessment for a group that is
supposed to be a very important
public body."
Current Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke, a former Princeton
economics professor who had
joined the Fed earlier that year
as a board member, supported
Greenspan's recommendation to
cut rates by a half-point.
Bernanke said the country seemed
to be experiencing the same type
of "jobless recovery" that had
occurred for a prolonged period
after the 1990-91 recession and
that a cut in rates was needed
to boost growth.
While the Fed releases minutes
of its closed-door discussions
three weeks after the meetings
are held, the full transcripts
are only released with a lag of
five years.