As
retailers
reported
sales
results
on
Thursday,
Wal-Mart
Stores
Inc.
and
Costco
Wholesale
Corp.
were
among
the few
winners,
as
shoppers
stuck to
basics.
Wal-Mart
raised
its
earnings
outlook,
noting
that
better
inventory
control
helped
to limit
markdowns
on
merchandise.
It also
said
that
April
sales
should
top
prior
expectations.
But
March
proved
to be
bleak
for most
others,
including
J.C.
Penney
Co.,
Gap Inc.,
and
Limited
Brands
Inc.
All of
them
reported
sharp
drops in
sales.
Even
high-end
department
stores
like
Saks Inc.,
languished;
Saks
noted
that
jewelry
and
designer
women's
apparel
were
among
the
weakest
areas.
Merchants
faced a
slew of
obstacles
to
improving
sales:
record
gas
prices,
rising
food
costs, a
weaker
job
market,
slumping
home
prices
and an
early,
frigid
Easter.
The
weather
may be
warming
now, but
the rest
of those
problems
aren't
likely
to
dissipate
soon.
"Consumers
are
buying
what
they
need,"
said
Jennifer
Black ,
president
of
Jennifer
Black &
Associates,
an
equity
research
company
in
Lake
Oswego,
Ore.
For
everything
else,
shoppers
are
being
pickier
and
focusing
on
discounters,
she
said.
According
to a
preliminary
tally by
UBS-International
Council
of
Shopping
Centers,
sales
slid 0.5
percent
versus
its
original
estimate
of 1
percent
growth.
The
results,
based on
same-store
sales or
sales at
stores
opened
at least
a year,
were the
weakest
since
March
1995,
when the
industry
registered
a
decline
of 0.8
percent.
The
retail
industry
already
had been
bracing
for a
weak
March
because
Easter
landed
two
weeks
earlier
than
last
year, on
March 23
when
winter
weather
still
gripped
most of
the
country.
It was
the
earliest
in 95
years.
Retailers
also had
one less
shopping
day in
March
compared
to a
year
ago.
A
deteriorating
economy,
soaring
food and
gas
prices,
limited
credit
and
slumping
home
prices
shook
shoppers
further.
The
Conference
Board, a
business-backed
group,
said
late
last
month
that
consumers'
outlook
for the
economy
was the
gloomiest
in 35
years.
Food
prices
have
been
soaring.
In
February,
the
price of
cereal
and
bakery
products
shot up
by 1.8
percent,
the
largest
monthly
increase
since
January
1975,
according
to the
Labor
Department.
A gallon
of milk
is now
close to
$4; a
dozen
eggs
more
than $2.
The
higher
costs
partly
reflect
rising
energy
prices,
which
increase
transportation
costs.
At
the
pump,
the
national
average
price of
a gallon
of gas
rose 1.4
cents
overnight
to a
record
$3.357 a
gallon,
according
to AAA
and the
Oil
Price
Information
Service.
Prices
have set
a string
of
records
in
recent
weeks,
and are
56 cents
higher
than a
year
ago.
With
the peak
summer
driving
season
still to
come and
crude
oil
prices
rising
too, gas
may
reach
the
retail
price of
$4 a
gallon
that the
Energy
Department
has been
forecasting.
A
sluggish
job
market
is
adding
to
worries.
On
Thursday,
the
Labor
Department
said
that
applications
for
jobless
benefits
totaled
357,000
last
week,
down by
53,000
from the
previous
week.
Even
with the
improvement,
the
four-week
average
for
claims
rose by
2,500 to
378,250,
the
highest
level
since
early
October
2005.
While
many
economists
believe
that the
country
is in a
recession,
the Bush
administration
says
that
growth
should
revive
this
summer
when 130
million
households
start
spending
their
economic
stimulus
checks.
Any
boost in
sales
could be
temporary,
however,
as
analysts
believe
many
shoppers
will use
a chunk
of the
money to
pay down
debt.
Michael
P.
Niemira,
chief
economist
at the
International
Council
of
Shopping
Centers,
says
that the
malaise
could
continue
into
2009.
The
rebate
checks,
he says,
will
"buy
retailers
some
time,"
but
without
an
improvement
in key
areas
like
housing,
a
recovery
in
spending
won't
happen
anytime
soon.
Niemira
expects
that for
the
combined
March-April
period —
retailers'
key
spring
selling
period —
sales
will be
up only
about 1
percent.
That
pace is
below
the 2.1
percent
average
seen
last
year,
which
was
slower
than the
3.6
percent
figure
in 2006.
Wal-Mart
was a
bright
spot. It
reported
a 0.7
percent
gain in
same-store
sales,
excluding
sales
results
from
fuel.
That was
slightly
below
the 1.0
percent
estimate
by
analysts
surveyed
by
Thomson
Financial,
however.
Wal-Mart
still
raised
its
first-quarter
earnings
outlook
because
of
better
inventory
controls
that
yielded
fewer
markdowns
and
reduced
store
theft.
The
company
also
benefited
from
strong
sales of
groceries,
video
games
and
other
electronics.
Rival
Target
Corp.,
which
has been
stumbling
lately,
posted a
4.4
percent
decline
in
same-store
sales.
Analysts
had
expected
a 2.7
percent
decrease.
Costco
posted a
7
percent
gain in
sales,
higher
than
expected,
with
much of
the gain
coming
from
gasoline
sales.
Many
department
stores
and
apparel
chains
suffered,
though.
Among
department
stores,
J.C.
Penney
posted a
larger-than-expected
12.3
percent
sales
decline.
The
department
store
retailer
had
warned
late
last
month
that
same-store
sales
would be
down at
least 10
percent
amid a
souring
economy.
Saks
reported
a 2.9
percent
decline
in
same-store
sales,
worse
than the
3.5
percent
gain
that
Wall
Street
anticipated.
Nordstrom
had a
9.1
percent
decline
in
same-store
sales;
analysts
had
expected
an 8.0
percent
drop.
Limited
Brands
reported
an 8
percent
drop in
sales.
Gap had
an 18
percent
drop in
same-store
sales,
dragged
down by
a 27
percent
drop at
its Old
Navy
division.
Teen
merchants,
which
typically
are more
recessionary
proof
than
other
categories,
stumbled
last
month,
too.
After
filling
the
family
car's
gas
tank,
teenagers
may have
little
left
over for
that new
pair of
sneakers
or a
skirt.